Four Weeks of War on Iran: Escalation, Economic Crisis, and No Exit
This is a developing story.
The US-Israeli war on Iran has entered its fourth week with no ceasefire in sight, an expanding theatre of conflict, and deepening global economic fallout. In a tagesschau assessment marking the grim anniversary, the picture is clear: what President Trump promised would be a short, targeted operation has become an open-ended military campaign that is now drawing in new combatants and straining the international order.
The most significant escalation this week came from Yemen, where Houthi forces entered the conflict by launching rockets at Israel. Simultaneously, Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened strikes on Israeli and US universities in retaliation for attacks on Iranian infrastructure, while a US E-3 Sentry AWACS surveillance aircraft was reportedly damaged in an Iranian strike in Saudi Arabia. The Pentagon claims to have degraded 90% of Iran's missile capacity and 95% of its drone capability, but Iran continues to launch strikes, and its foreign ministry spokesperson told Zeteo's Mehdi Hasan that the country has "already won" through resilience alone.
Trump extended his ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz from 48 hours to ten days, now threatening to bomb Iran's power grid and desalination plants on April 6. Iran rejected the US 15-point peace proposal as "maximalist and unreasonable." In Geneva nuclear talks, Iran showed what it called "unprecedented flexibility" on enrichment and IAEA safeguards but refused the US demand for zero enrichment. Jeremy Scahill, reporting for Democracy Now!, presented evidence that Trump is lying about direct negotiations with Iran, with Iranian officials denying any such dialogue.
The war's economic impact is now global. Iran's partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil, gas, and fertilizer prices soaring, with Adam Hanieh of SOAS warning that countries already near famine conditions face the greatest risk. Wall Street suffered its worst single-day decline since COVID-19. In a pattern that suggests market manipulation, oil futures worth $580 million were traded minutes before Trump posted about peace talks on social media. German bond yields have risen sharply, and Goldman Sachs now warns that oil prices could approach the 2008 record of $147 per barrel.
Dissent is growing on multiple fronts. Some US troops being deployed to the Middle East are seeking to refuse to fight, according to the Center on Conscience and War. The Pentagon quietly raised its maximum enlistment age from 35 to 42. At the G7 summit in France, world leaders openly criticized Trump. NATO continues to refuse US demands to secure the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Trump to attack Chancellor Merz personally and threaten the alliance. Pakistan's Prime Minister Sharif called Iranian President Peseschkian as part of mediation efforts, and IDF chief of staff warned that the Israeli military is approaching a state of collapse after months of continuous warfare. Meanwhile, Iran-linked hackers breached FBI Director Kash Patel's personal email, and international human rights lawyer Craig Mukver characterized the war as an illegal war of aggression with the possible US endgame of installing Reza Pahlavi as a puppet monarch.